The situation now
Updated: 2026-03-13. This is one "situational awareness" and not a real-time feed. For documentation, see sources.
Operation image (high-level)
- USA/Partners: air and missile operations two reduce Iran's offensive capacity (missiles, production, naval and security infrastructure).
- Iran: counter-offensives with drones and rockets against regional goals, as well as pressure on energy and transport hubs.
- Region: air defence, base protection and civil preparedness is scaled up in several countries.
- Status on March 12: open sources still indicate sustained high operational tempo and broad regional pressure. No publicly confirmed strategic course change has been reported beyond the status picture established on March 10-11.
Risk points
Error identification
High operational speed in tight airspace increases the risk of "friendly fire" and accidents.
High operational speed in tight airspace increases the risk of "friendly fire" and accidents.
Civil infrastructure
Energy, data centres, ports and logistics can be affected indirectly or directly.
Energy, data centres, ports and logistics can be affected indirectly or directly.
Shipping
Trade routes and insurance can be affected by threats/attacks i strategic passages.
Trade routes and insurance can be affected by threats/attacks i strategic passages.
Diplomatic window
De-escalation capability can open/close quickly based on individual events.
De-escalation capability can open/close quickly based on individual events.
Timeline (selection)
| Date | Events |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Open-source checkpoint: Reuters/AP reporting still points to high tempo and pressure across multiple fronts, with no publicly confirmed strategic course change beyond the March 10-12 picture. |
| 2026-03-12 | Open-source checkpoint: Reuters/AP reporting still points to high tempo and pressure across multiple fronts, with no publicly confirmed strategic course change beyond the March 10-11 picture. |
| 2026-03-11 | Open-source checkpoint: Reuters/AP reporting still points to high tempo and pressure across multiple fronts, with no publicly confirmed strategic course change beyond the March 10 picture. |
| 2026-03-10 | As of 10 March, Reuters reports continued overnight strikes in and around Tehran and reported shutdown at ADNOC's Ruwais refinery after a drone strike, while Reuters also reports U.S. Patriot deployment in southeast Turkey near the Kurecik radar base. AP reports new attacks targeting Israel and Gulf states. The combined picture points to sustained regional pressure. |
| 2026-03-08 | AP/Reuters mentions reported hits against oil facilities in Tehran and reported damage to desalination plant in Bahrain; at the same time is CENTCOM's last major public announcement still on March 6. |
| 2026-03-07 | Checkpoint in open sources: no new public main announcement that changes the main picture from March 6, but persistently high voltage and risk. |
| 2026-03-06 | In a Middle East statement, the UN Secretary-General calls for a halt in combat actions and serious diplomatic negotiations. |
| 2026-03-06 | CENTCOM publishes notice of C-SIPA defense meeting between Bahrain, the United Kingdom and the United States, with an emphasis on regional coordination and security. |
| 2026-03-05 | New signals point towards tighter identification and notification routines in air operations, with continued activity in de-escalating diplomatic lines of contact. |
| 2026-03-04 | The incident remains under investigation; simultaneously ongoing both operational measures and diplomatic activity in the UN track. |
| 2026-03-02 | CENTCOM states that three F-15Es in support of the operation went down over Kuwait in a friendly-fire incident; all six pilots stayed the mountain. |
| 2026-03-01 | Iranian response with missiles/drones. Regional Air Defense is activated. |
| 2026-02-28 | Launch of Operation Epic Fury (CENTCOM). Coordinated attacks against targets in Iran. |
New March 13
As of 13 March: open-source reporting confirms sustained intensity, region-wide spread in reported incidents, and continued military-diplomatic signaling. See attack map for a visual overview of named places in open sources.
- Regional coordination: The C-SIPA meeting 5/6 March signals continued close coordination between key partners i CENTCOM area.
- Diplomatic pressure: The UN chief's statement on 6 March underlines the risk of uncontrolled escalation and the need for negotiation.
- New risk points: sustained strike intensity and wider cross-border reporting illustrate how quickly the conflict can affect critical civilian infrastructure and regional mobility.
What should you keep an eye on next?
- Official briefings (CENTCOM, Pentagon, Iranian authorities).
- Independent news agencies (AP/Reuters) and regional media.
- Indicators of maritime risk and energy supply.
For scenarios and possible path choices: What next?